How Do We Know If It Is A Surge?

Its now been 2 years since the last National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq, and intelligence czar John Negroponte seems in no real hurry to deliver a new one to Congress. NIEs are “the most authoritative written judgment concerning a national security issue” according to the CIA, severely needed as the last one was completed in 2004. According to this report Negroponte is dragging his feet as this NIE would be "deeply pessimistic" and embarrassing to the President.

So how do we know if the 20,000 troop surge will be enough if we're operating off of 2 year old data? And is it really putting the lives of another 20,000 troops in danger to avoid embarrassing the President?