Sunday, July 30, 2006

No Chance of a Cease Fire? How about peace then?

As the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah enters a third week, Secretary of State Rice canceled her trip to Beirut today. The administration has parroted the same line since the start, that a cease fire would only delay the action not prevent it. And you know what, they're right. If we only broker a cease fire, it will only allow the two sides an opportunity to dig in and re-arm.

So why then aren't we pushing for a broader peace agreement? Yes Hezbollah will never agree to such a pact, but Lebanon and Syria may. If offered a chance at the funds from the West needed to rebuild it's country, and an offer of peace from Israel, Lebanon would certainly jump at such an offer. Syria as an relatively oil poor Arab nation also needs to strengthened ties with the West to survive economically. Syria is a secular Sunni nation, it's bedfellow Iran is a fundamentalist Shiite nation, that Syria must recognize will at some point look to remake in it's own image. The chance to re-ally itself with the Jordans and Turkeys and Egypts of the Arab world is an opportunity that Syria would be well advised to take. And as Libya illustrates, the US is willing to make friends with dictators, even ones who have sponsored terrorism against it.

What does this have to do with Hezbollah? Lebanon gives it refuge and it shred of legitimacy (remember Hezbollah hold a majority of seats in parliament there)while Syria provides the funding and funnels Iranian arms to it. If it loses these two key patrons it will find itself isolated from it's only remaining patron Iran.

So why aren't we proceeding with these talks? That's a question for the White House, but it is a question we need to start asking.

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